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Accommodating energy price volatility in life cycle cost analysis of asphalt pavements

机译：沥青路面生命周期成本分析中的能源价格波动

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摘要

Energy price is related to more than half of the total life cycle cost of asphalt pavements. Furthermore, the fluctuation related to price of energy has been much higher than the general inflation and interest rate. This makes the energy price inflation an important variable that should be addressed when performing life cycle cost (LCC) studies re- garding asphalt pavements. The present value of future costs is highly sensitive to the selected discount rate. Therefore, the choice of the discount rate is the most critical element in LCC analysis during the life time of a project. The objective of the paper is to present a discount rate for asphalt pavement projects as a function of interest rate, general inflation and energy price inflation. The discount rate is defined based on the portion of the energy related costs during the life time of the pavement. Consequently, it can reflect the financial risks related to the energy price in asphalt pavement projects. It is suggested that a discount rate sensitivity analysis for asphalt pavements in Sweden should range between –20 and 30%.
机译：能源价格约占沥青路面生命周期总成本的一半以上。此外，与能源价格有关的波动远高于一般的通货膨胀率和利率。这使得能源价格上涨成为重要的变量，在进行有关沥青路面的生命周期成本（LCC）研究时应该解决。未来成本的现值对所选折现率高度敏感。因此，折现率的选择是项目生命周期中LCC分析中最关键的要素。本文的目的是提出沥青路面项目的折现率与利率，一般通货膨胀和能源价格通货膨胀的关系。折现率是根据路面使用寿命中与能源相关的成本的一部分来定义的。因此，它可以反映与沥青路面项目中的能源价格相关的财务风险。建议在瑞典的沥青路面贴现率敏感性分析应在–20％到30％之间。

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